Preseason Rankings
Conference USA
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
76 Western Kentucky 32.9%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 7 10 - 4 +6.8      +4.2 70 +2.6 97 68.8 172 0.0 1 0.0 1
116 Louisiana Tech 14.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 9 9 - 5 +3.5      +1.7 121 +1.8 118 64.7 290 0.0 1 0.0 1
121 Texas San Antonio 13.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 10 9 - 5 +3.1      +3.5 81 -0.3 171 77.3 27 0.0 1 0.0 1
139 Old Dominion 8.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 8 - 6 +1.2      -4.2 294 +5.4 42 63.0 323 0.0 1 0.0 1
140 UAB 7.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 11 8 - 6 +1.2      +0.6 151 +0.5 144 63.8 309 0.0 1 0.0 1
152 North Texas 7.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 12 7 - 7 +0.6      -2.0 237 +2.6 99 64.0 304 0.0 1 0.0 1
163 Florida Atlantic 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 11 7 - 7 -0.1      -1.7 228 +1.6 122 69.0 167 0.0 1 0.0 1
169 UTEP 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 11 7 - 7 -0.4      -2.6 253 +2.2 111 69.3 162 0.0 1 0.0 1
174 Middle Tennessee 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 13 7 - 7 -0.9      -1.2 217 +0.4 151 68.9 171 0.0 1 0.0 1
185 Florida International 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 13 6 - 8 -1.9      +0.8 143 -2.7 246 92.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1
188 Marshall 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 15 6 - 8 -2.0      +0.8 144 -2.8 252 84.0 5 0.0 1 0.0 1
229 Rice 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 14 5 - 9 -3.7      +0.1 173 -3.9 286 73.9 63 0.0 1 0.0 1
238 Southern Miss 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 15 5 - 9 -4.3      -2.6 254 -1.7 215 63.6 314 0.0 1 0.0 1
276 Charlotte 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 4 - 10 -6.4      -4.9 308 -1.5 209 62.9 325 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Western Kentucky 3.1 37.7 18.6 12.1 9.1 6.1 4.7 3.4 2.6 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
Louisiana Tech 4.5 18.3 15.6 13.1 10.9 9.5 7.6 6.5 5.1 3.9 3.3 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.8
Texas San Antonio 4.9 17.7 14.0 11.9 10.4 9.0 7.9 6.7 5.6 4.6 4.1 3.2 2.4 1.6 1.0
Old Dominion 5.7 10.8 11.0 11.5 10.5 9.3 8.7 8.1 7.1 5.8 5.4 4.3 3.4 2.6 1.5
UAB 6.1 9.9 10.2 10.1 9.5 9.1 8.8 7.8 7.3 6.5 6.1 5.1 4.4 3.2 2.1
North Texas 6.3 8.4 9.7 9.8 9.1 9.7 8.8 8.2 7.7 7.0 6.2 5.4 4.4 3.4 2.2
Florida Atlantic 6.7 7.7 8.1 8.8 8.6 8.9 7.9 7.9 7.6 7.9 6.6 6.3 5.7 4.7 3.3
UTEP 7.2 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.1 8.5 8.0 8.2 7.8 6.8 6.1 5.7 4.2
Middle Tennessee 7.4 5.6 6.3 6.9 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.2 8.4 7.9 7.3 6.9 6.1 4.5
Florida International 8.0 4.1 4.9 6.1 6.4 7.1 7.5 7.9 8.7 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.3 7.7 6.2
Marshall 8.3 3.1 4.2 4.9 6.0 7.1 7.8 8.1 8.7 9.0 9.4 8.9 8.9 7.7 6.2
Rice 9.0 1.9 3.0 3.7 4.7 5.7 6.6 7.2 8.0 8.6 9.7 9.9 10.7 10.8 9.4
Southern Miss 9.5 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.8 4.7 5.5 6.7 7.6 8.7 9.7 11.2 11.7 12.5 11.3
Charlotte 10.6 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.4 3.1 4.0 4.6 5.8 7.0 9.0 10.5 12.9 16.5 20.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Western Kentucky 10 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.9 6.2 9.3 13.0 15.5 17.3 15.4 11.2 4.8
Louisiana Tech 9 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 3.1 5.0 7.4 11.4 13.4 15.4 15.0 12.5 8.6 4.8 1.3
Texas San Antonio 9 - 5 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.5 6.3 8.5 11.7 13.4 14.2 13.6 11.9 7.8 4.5 1.4
Old Dominion 8 - 6 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.3 5.1 8.2 11.3 13.1 14.2 14.4 11.8 8.8 5.2 2.4 0.5
UAB 8 - 6 0.2 0.6 2.0 3.7 6.7 9.3 11.8 13.1 13.9 13.0 11.3 7.6 4.3 2.0 0.6
North Texas 7 - 7 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.8 6.8 9.8 12.2 14.1 13.7 13.1 10.3 7.4 3.8 1.7 0.4
Florida Atlantic 7 - 7 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.5 8.2 10.9 12.8 13.0 12.7 11.7 9.3 6.0 3.8 1.6 0.3
UTEP 7 - 7 0.4 1.5 4.0 6.3 8.8 11.8 13.8 13.3 12.7 10.5 7.6 4.9 2.9 1.2 0.2
Middle Tennessee 7 - 7 0.4 1.9 3.8 6.9 9.7 12.5 13.5 13.8 12.3 9.7 7.2 4.8 2.2 0.9 0.3
Florida International 6 - 8 0.7 2.6 5.3 8.5 11.6 13.0 14.0 12.9 11.1 8.4 6.1 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1
Marshall 6 - 8 0.6 2.4 5.7 8.9 12.1 14.2 14.8 13.2 11.0 7.8 4.9 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1
Rice 5 - 9 1.2 4.1 7.8 11.7 13.8 15.0 13.6 11.6 9.1 5.8 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Southern Miss 5 - 9 1.6 4.9 9.2 13.2 15.4 14.9 13.4 10.5 7.5 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Charlotte 4 - 10 3.7 9.2 13.3 16.8 15.5 13.6 10.4 7.5 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Western Kentucky 37.7% 24.2 9.9 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 18.3% 10.4 5.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 17.7% 9.9 5.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 10.8% 5.3 3.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UAB 9.9% 5.0 3.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Texas 8.4% 4.1 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 7.7% 4.0 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UTEP 6.5% 3.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 5.6% 2.6 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida International 4.1% 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marshall 3.1% 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 1.9% 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Western Kentucky 32.9% 27.6% 5.3% 12   0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.2 5.8 9.4 5.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 67.1 7.3%
Louisiana Tech 14.8% 13.6% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.4 3.9 3.9 2.5 1.2 0.2 85.2 1.4%
Texas San Antonio 13.7% 12.5% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.5 4.0 3.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 86.3 1.4%
Old Dominion 8.3% 7.7% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.2 91.7 0.6%
UAB 7.7% 7.3% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.9 0.2 92.3 0.4%
North Texas 7.3% 6.9% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 92.7 0.5%
Florida Atlantic 5.9% 5.6% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.3 94.1 0.3%
UTEP 5.1% 4.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 94.9 0.4%
Middle Tennessee 4.7% 4.3% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 95.3 0.4%
Florida International 3.3% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 96.7 0.1%
Marshall 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.1 97.1 0.1%
Rice 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 98.2 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 98.5 0.0%
Charlotte 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Western Kentucky 32.9% 2.8% 31.6% 10.6% 3.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 14.8% 0.7% 14.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 13.7% 0.9% 13.3% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 8.3% 0.4% 8.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 7.7% 0.3% 7.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 7.3% 0.4% 7.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 5.9% 0.3% 5.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 5.1% 0.3% 5.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 4.7% 0.3% 4.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 3.3% 0.2% 3.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 2.9% 0.1% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 1.8% 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 89.8 9.9 0.3 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.1 0.3 92.5 7.1 0.1
2nd Round 23.5% 0.2 76.5 22.8 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 7.2% 0.1 92.8 7.2 0.1
Elite Eight 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8 0.0
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1